Conformity assessment of multicomponent materials or objects: Risk of false decisions due to measurement uncertainty - A case study of denatured alcohols

Risk of a false decision on conformity of a multicomponent material or object due to measurement uncertainty is discussed. Even if conformity assessment for each component of a material sample is successful, the total probability of a false decision (total consumer's risk or producer's risk) concerning the sample as a whole might still be significant. A model of the total probability of such false decisions is formulated based on the law (theorem) of total probability. It is shown that the total risk can be evaluated as a combination of the particular risks of conformity assessment of sample components. For a more complicated task, i.e. for a larger number of components of a sample under control, the total risk is greater. As a case study, the total probability of false conforming (total consumer's risk) is evaluated for customs control of completely denatured alcohols, where conformity assessment is performed by comparison of chemical analytical test results with the regulatory limits.